26 November, 2011

Another Gem from Climategate II

1683, Proof of Collusion
7 Sep 2005 13:56:57
from Jonathan Renouf [BBC Series Producer, Science Department]
subject: Final thoughts
to Keith Briffa

Hi Keith,
Good to talk to you this morning. Just a few thoughts to reiterate what we’re hoping to get out of filming tomorrow.

1) Your interview appears at a crucial point in the film [released as Meltdown: A Global Warming Journey (2006)].  Up until now our presenter (Paul Rose, he’ll be there tomorrow) has followed two conflicting thoughts.  On the one hand he’s understood that the world is currently getting warmer.  But on the other he's discovered lots of historical stories (the Bronze Age, the MWP, the LIA) which tell him that climate changes naturally all the time.  In trying to resolve this paradox he’s come across this thing called the hockey stick curve, and he’s come to you to explain it to him.
2) Your essential job is to “prove” to Paul that what we’re experiencing now is NOT just another of those natural fluctuations we've seen in the past.  The hockey stick curve is a crucial piece of evidence because it shows how abnormal the present period is – the present warming is unprecedented in speed and amplitude, something like that.  This is a very big moment in the film when Paul is finally convinced of the reality of man made global warming.
3) The hockey stick curve shows that what Paul thought were big climate events (the Bronze Age maximum, the MWP, the LIA) actually when looked at in a global context weren’t quite as dramatic as he thought.  They’re there, but they are nothing like as sudden or big.
4) Paul can question you on things like:  How reliable is the hockey stick curve?  How do you work out past climate (cue for you to talk about proxies)?  What drives all the “natural” fluct[u]ations in climate (this can be answered in very broad terms e.g., it’s down to changes in the sun’s output, volcanoes etc.)
5) In terms of filming my first choice is to do it as a projection in Zicer, where you show the Mann curve, then flick up as many other ones as you think are important (within reason!) and elaborate the point that what’s happening now is unprecedented compared to these historic records.  In my ideal world, you walk right up to the projector image and point things out on the screen, with parts of the projected image falling on your heads and shoulders.  Stills of tree rings or anything else climate related e.g., ice cores, corals, would also work as powerpoints, because you could talk about them as egs of proxies.

Hopefully this makes it clear what I’m trying to achieve.
Look forward to tomorrow.
All best

UPDATE Isome BBC reporters fail to realise that their job is to represent the consensus of Mann and Jones and nought else.

Mar 17 15:05:38 2005
from Phil Jones
subject: Re: BBC E-mail: New row on climate ‘hockey stick’
to Michael E. Mann

If you do it’s worth sending also to this guy, Alex Kirkby. […]
This guys higher up.  He got them to check more the items they post on their web site from members of the public. […]

At 14:27 17/03/2005, you wrote:
Hi Phil,
Might be worth sending in a letter of complaint to BBC.  They should know that the scientific community is unhappy w/ their flawed reporting on these matters.
I’ve already brought this up w/ Ben Dempsey (who is supposed to call me shortly—sounds like you’re talking to a different person at Horizon),
At 03:26 AM 3/17/2005, Phil Jones wrote:

I tried to convince the reporter here there wasn’t a story, but he went with it anyway.
At least he put in a quote from me that there are loads of other series that show similar-ish series to MBH and MJ.  Had to mention the Moberg et al. series to achieve this.
The reporter said he’d not seen Moberg et al., and it wasn’t flagged up by Nature to them at the appropriate time.  Odd!  Then why are you running with this GRL paper as there are 10s issued each week.  Well, it turns out, not surprisingly, that MM have issued numerous press releases themselves – using their networks.  [...]
His quote is typical of many I get to here.  Pity the reporter didn’t mention this to me.
UPDATE II:  at Paul Rose’s site, he describes the alleged documentary, Meltdown: A Global Warming Journey, humorously:
Examining all sides of the argument, this compelling film seeks the truth behind what has become one of the most important issues of our time.
UPDATE III:  for more BBC bias, see Bishop Hill on e-mails 0306 and 4894.

UPDATE IV:  sometimes, proleptic criticism is penned using, no doubt, the pure anticipatory cognition which the fraudsters have so successfully used over the last decades to make such accurate predictions.

10 Nov 2003 15:23:04
from Asher Minns
subject: Horizon
to m.hulme@uea...
I have had this reply from Mark Maslin at UCL – he was one of the consultants on an earlier Horizon series – see below.  As an exercise, I have drafted a letter for the Director/Producer, perhaps BBC Wildlife or the Radio Times, which is from me personally – also below.  Of course, I will wait to see the programme first.  Any comments?  […]

1) Dear Asher
I think (and hope) that the BBC are just recycling the title.  As I know that Jochem Marotzke (Southampton), Peter Cox and Adrian Lister (UCL) and others have put alot of time in trying to give the BBC a clear view of the current science and how we got to it.  My own meetings, however, suggest they will be going down the Deep Ocean Circulation in the North Atlantic will fail and be bad for Europe/USA.  Not sure how much wider the program will be than that despite my efforts to suggest a wide view including the possible shut down of AABW.  They also seemed to be very keen on discussing and filming the history of the Palaeoclimates which led from the 1970’s to the realisation that the deep ocean could changed and rapidly.
So simple answer is it should not be a repeat of the 1999 Big Chill program ... otherwise I will want my licence fee back!  But I do not know how many of the interviews/films they will re-use.
all the best

2) The science of climate change, and BBC Horizon
BBC2 broadcast The Big Chill on Thursday 13 November as part of its series of Horizon programmes, suggesting that Europe and the US will be plunged into a mini ice-age through global warming.  There are fundamental differences between the chilling certainty of Horizon’s claims for the next 20 years, and the global warnings of the UK’s climate change research experts.
The UK Government and academic community is unique in the world in having a state-of-the-art understanding of climate change predictions for the nation, published first in 1998 and re-researched last year.  The UK’s climate predictions state that the collapse of the Gulf Stream is unlikely to lead to a cooling of the UK climate within the next 100 years.  Apart from a general concern for the misrepresentation of science by mainstream media, inaccurate science communication gives mixed messages to the wider public about what scientists understand about climate change, and the choices that we have in responding and adapting to the impacts of climate change.  If Horizon is to advertise itself as a science documentary, then it has to maintain the respect and support of scientists and public alike.
Asher Minns
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research HQ
University of East Anglia

1 comment:

ItsFairComment said...

Tells you most about the BBC.....